What Are the Chances of Returns In 1Xbet Id?
This post by 1Xbet Id is the third in a series about the Kelly criterion and how it can be used to bet on sports. Part 1 gives an overview of the Kelly criterion and shows how it works with an example. Part 2 gives a simple derivation. This post adds the chance of getting a refund to the Kelly criterion. Before moving on, you should read Part 1 and Part 2 first.
Introduction
Remember from Part 2 that the Kelly betting scheme has two variables: p, which is the chance that an outcome will happen, and q, which is the chance that the outcome won't happen. If you bet on this result, you think you will win p times out of q and lose q times out of p.
Keep in mind that q is defined as 1 - p so that p+q = 1. This means that you can only win or lose: there is no other choice. There are, however, bets where it is possible to get your money back. There are three possible results in this case, and p + q 1. This post will show that the Kelly criterion only needs a small change to allow for the chance of a refund.
When Is It Possible To Get A Refund?
There is a good chance of getting a refund for sports like:
- Soccer (football) 1Xbet Id gives all lost pre-game bets back. In the case of a 0-0 draw, you can bet on Correct Score, Half-Time/Full-Time, and Scorecast.
- Tennis In tennis, each bookmaker has its own rules, but 1Win Id, for example, will return all bets if a player has to leave the game because of an injury. Keep in mind that 10Cric10 Id doesn't do this when analyzing odds.
- Boxing For example, 1Win Id gave back money to people who lost money on the Green vs. Briggs fight.
- Promotion Bookmakers often have promotions for big events where they will pay back some losing bets if a certain thing happens. Some of these returns are given out of the blue. 1Win Id gave all lost bets on Australia back because they thought the red cards Australia got were too harsh. Australia won the 2010 FIFA World Cup.
Notation
This post follows the same format as Part 1 and Part 2. Let:
- W_{0} = the amount of money in your account before you make a bet.
- W_{n} = the amount left in your account after n bets
- f = the percentage of your bankroll (your account balance) you want to bet on a certain event
- d = the decimal odds for that result (2.50 means that a $10 back bet that wins would pay out $25 and make a $15 profit).
- p = the chance you think that thing will happen (where 0 p 1)
- q = the chance you think that result won't happen (where 0 q 1 and p + q 1)
In this post, I talk about a new variable. Let j = the chance you think you'll get a return (where 0 j 1 and p + q + j = 1)
Including The Chance of Getting Your Money Back
Now, there are three possible results in the Kelly betting system:
- Win (d-1)f with a chance of p.
- Lose f with a chance of q.
- Get your money back from the bet with chance j
After making one bet, the account amount can be one of three things:
- With chance p, W1 = W0(1 + f*(d-1))
- With probability q, W1 = W0(1 – f).
- W1 = W0 with a chance of j
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